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The teams have been selected. March Madness starts on Tuesday. Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia will be the #1 seeds.


Bracket Trends Analysis

In Trends Analysis Part I I examined the importance of seeding in each round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, starting with the Round of 64. This analysis contains data through the 2015 NCAA Tournament.

In Trends Analysis Part II I examined the performance of participants in the NCAA Tournament based on team statistical data such as field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, free throws, rebounding and turnover margin. This analysis contains data through the 2013 NCAA Tournament.

In 2013, Florida Gulf Coast became the first #15 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Are NCAA Tournament upsets on the rise? My analysis of Upset Trends seeks to answer that question.

Records by Seed, 1985-2015

Seed Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Semis Finals
1 124-0 107-17 85-22 51-34 29-22 19-10
2 117-7 79-38 58-21 26-32 12-14 4-8
3 104-20 63-41 31-32 14-17 9-5 4-5
4 99-25 57-42 20-37 13-7 3-10 1-2
5 80-44 41-39 8-33 6-2 3-3 0-3
6 81-43 41-40 13-28 3-10 2-1 1-1
7 76-48 22-54 9-13 2-7 1-1 1-0
8 63-61 12-51 8-4 5-3 3-2 1-2
9 61-63 5-56 2-3 1-1 0-1  
10 48-76 22-26 7-15 0-7    
11 43-81 18-25 6-12 3-3 0-3  
12 44-80 20-24 1-19 0-1    
13 25-99 6-19 0-6      
14 20-104 2-18 0-2      
15 7-117 1-6 0-1      
16 0-124          

Percentage of Time Advancing Through Each Round, 1985-2015

Seed Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Semis Finals
1 100% 86% 69% 41% 23% 15%
2 94% 64% 47% 21% 10% 3%
3 84% 51% 25% 11% 7% 3%
4 80% 46% 16% 10% 2% 1%
5 65% 33% 6% 5% 2% 0%
6 65% 33% 10% 2% 2% 1%
7 61% 18% 7% 2% 1% 1%
8 51% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1%
9 49% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0%
10 39% 18% 6% 0% 0% 0%
11 35% 15% 5% 2% 0% 0%
12 35% 16% 1% 0% 0% 0%
13 20% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 16% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
16 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%




NCAA Tournament Links
NCAA Trends Part I
NCAA Trends Part II
NCAA Upset Trends
ESPN College Hoops
CBS Sports College Hoops
StatFox.com
StatSheet.com

Notes Archive
2012 NCAA Notes
2011 NCAA Notes
2005-2008 NCAA Notes


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