 |
 |
|
|
The teams have been selected. March Madness starts on Tuesday. Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia
will be the #1 seeds.
In Trends Analysis Part I I examined the importance of seeding in each round of
the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, starting with the Round of 64. This analysis contains data through the 2015 NCAA Tournament.
In Trends Analysis Part II I examined the performance of participants in the NCAA
Tournament based on team statistical data such as field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, free throws,
rebounding and turnover margin. This analysis contains data through the 2013 NCAA Tournament.
In 2013, Florida Gulf Coast became the first #15 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Are NCAA Tournament upsets
on the rise? My analysis of Upset Trends seeks to answer that question.
Records by Seed, 1985-2015
| Seed | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Semis | Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 124-0 | 107-17 | 85-22 | 51-34 | 29-22 | 19-10 |
| 2 | 117-7 | 79-38 | 58-21 | 26-32 | 12-14 | 4-8 |
| 3 | 104-20 | 63-41 | 31-32 | 14-17 | 9-5 | 4-5 |
| 4 | 99-25 | 57-42 | 20-37 | 13-7 | 3-10 | 1-2 |
| 5 | 80-44 | 41-39 | 8-33 | 6-2 | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| 6 | 81-43 | 41-40 | 13-28 | 3-10 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| 7 | 76-48 | 22-54 | 9-13 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| 8 | 63-61 | 12-51 | 8-4 | 5-3 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| 9 | 61-63 | 5-56 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-1 | |
| 10 | 48-76 | 22-26 | 7-15 | 0-7 | ||
| 11 | 43-81 | 18-25 | 6-12 | 3-3 | 0-3 | |
| 12 | 44-80 | 20-24 | 1-19 | 0-1 | ||
| 13 | 25-99 | 6-19 | 0-6 | |||
| 14 | 20-104 | 2-18 | 0-2 | |||
| 15 | 7-117 | 1-6 | 0-1 | |||
| 16 | 0-124 |
Percentage of Time Advancing Through Each Round, 1985-2015
| Seed | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Semis | Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 86% | 69% | 41% | 23% | 15% |
| 2 | 94% | 64% | 47% | 21% | 10% | 3% |
| 3 | 84% | 51% | 25% | 11% | 7% | 3% |
| 4 | 80% | 46% | 16% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 | 65% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 0% |
| 6 | 65% | 33% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 | 61% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 | 51% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 | 49% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | 39% | 18% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | 35% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | 35% | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
